Game plays

Best cash games for TOUR 2021 Championship at East Lake Golf Club

The PGA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each week’s slate, using tools and metrics from Fantasy Labs to highlight outstanding golfers.

The PGA TOUR heads to Atlanta this week as the 2020-21 season concludes with the TOUR Championship at the East Lake Golf Club.

The course is a par-70 measuring just over 7340 yards with Bermuda grass greens. It will be a 30-man, cup-less event with the FedEx Cup point leaders all starting with a scoring advantage.

Patrick Cantlay is in first place after last week’s win at BMW, so he will start the tournament at 10 under the par, followed by Tony Finau at eight under and so on until we get to the last five which will be. all start au pair. Overall, the course usually plays on the harder side so expect the winning score to be in the 11-sub range.

I’ll be highlighting the best cash games / single entry games on the main DraftKings slate, but these players are often great options in any contest.

My analysis will frequently refer Wins won, a set of proprietary metrics generated by the PGA TOUR using millions of data points to calculate the average number of strokes it takes for a player to put the ball in the hole, regardless of distance and situation. Strokes Gained is now available in PGA FantasyLabs models.

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There are a variety of metrics related to won stroke, but the top six categories you should be aware of include:

  • Shots won: off the tee (SG: Off-the-Tee)
  • Strokes won: approach (SG: Approach)
  • Strokes won: Around the green (SG: Around the green)
  • Strokes won: putting (SG: put)
  • Strokes Won: Ball Strike (SG: Ball-Striking), which is SG: Off-the-Tee + SG: Approach
  • Strokes won: from tee to green (SG: Tee-to-Green), which is SG: Ball-Striking + SG: Around-the-Green

For more information on Strokes Gained data and how to use it, see this article by Bryan Mears on The Action Network, which details each of the above metrics. I also recommend Chris Murphy’s Strokes Gained column after each round of this week’s PGA TOUR event, which highlights Golfers to Buy and Go, as well as Matthew Vincenzi’s weekly “Statistics that matter”Which highlights the most important Strokes Gained sub-metrics for a given course.

The following players listed are based on DraftKings rating and pricing.

Basic games

Jon Rahm ($ 13,000 DraftKings)

Rahm passed out over the weekend at the BMW, but I don’t read too much about that as birdie-fests are usually not his forte. He much prefers grind it out style tracks where par is often a good score. East Lake should play a lot harder than Caves Valley last week.

Rahm came out of a T-4 at this event last year, and also has an additional T-7 in 2017, but he’s never been as in control of his game as he is now. He’ll start six pennies and four behind Patrick Cantlay, but most sports books still have him as a betting favorite.

Four strokes isn’t a ton of ground to catch up in four days, and Cantlay’s record isn’t great at East Lake. With all the value we have at the bottom of the board, it’s pretty easy to get the world’s No.1 player into our lineups this week.

Justin Thomas ($ 11,000 DraftKings)

JT absolutely loves East Lake, having finished no worse than T-7 in five TOUR Championship trips since 2016. He also posted a pair of finalists and a T-3 in that stretch, and pulls out another very strong ball – BMW strike week. He won 2.25 strokes on approaching just Sunday, which we love to see because that’s usually a harbinger of things to come for Thomas.

As usual, his putting was excruciating last week, however, he’s been essentially a neutral putter at this event in his career, so if he can keep hitting his irons like he did last week. , he should easily struggle. He’ll start at four cents a par for the week and I expect him to reload the leaderboard over the weekend. We have the impression that he is about to put everything in place.

Xander Sc Chaudele ($ 8,900 DraftKings)

Much like JT, ScHotele loves southern Atlanta cuisine, having earned one victory and two finalists on four career trips to East Lake. Among the guys who have played this course more than once, ScHotele leads the chart for average shots won per round, gaining 2.11 healthy shots. That’s 0.5 strokes per turn better than the next closest guy (Rory McIlroy.)

We’re paying a bit more for X Man’s course history as he is priced significantly higher than most of the other guys who start at two below par. Last year, despite finishing T-2 at DJ, he posted the lowest score on 72 holes, meaning he would have won if it was a normal stroke play event. Either way, I think we can reasonably expect it to make the top 10 this week, which should be enough to pay its price.

Value games

Scottie Scheffler ($ 6,800 DraftKings)

Scheffler made his East Lake debut last year with a very impressive T-6. He averaged over 2.5 strokes won from the tee to the green per round on the field last year. Obviously, this is only a sample of a year, but the leader of this department in this area is Sergio Garcia, who has averaged 1.53 strokes gained from the start to the green per lap over the course of his career at East Lake. This is quite a significant difference.

Scheffler’s putting is better in the light-year on Bermuda shorts than on other surfaces, so hopefully the flashback will propel him to a nice finish this week. His irons were hot this weekend at BMW, winning respectively 3.1 and 1.2 strokes on the approach Saturday and Sunday. He’ll start at sub this week, but should make a ton of birdies and provide us with solid value at just $ 6,800 on DraftKings.

Sergio Garcia ($ 5,400 DraftKings)

Garcia, as mentioned above, hits the ball really well at East Lake and has just had a week of really strong hitting the ball, winning hits both off the tee and on approach in three of his four rounds at BMW. . Remarkably, he hasn’t made the TOUR Championship since 2017, but his history during his career has been strong here, posting three top 10s since 2013.

There are a few guys to choose from in this range, and I love Daniel Shepherd ($ 5,800 DraftKings) not bad this week since we’re back in Bermuda, but I’ll break the tie based on Garcia’s story. You can’t go wrong either way for their two respective salaries, and paying here allows you to place multiple amounts at the top, which is all we’re looking for in a no-cut event like this.

Erik Van Rooyen ($ 5,000 DraftKings)

EVR is one of the most prominent players in the playoffs, finishing seventh at the Northern Trust and then fifth last week at BMW. He ranks fourth in this area for total strokes earned during that time frame, which is pretty good for someone costing at least $ 5,000 a stone on DraftKings this week.

The South African will be making his East Lake debut, but considering the tear he’s been through and what his salary allows you to do, he makes an incredibly difficult fade in any format. EVR has released some monster balls over the past two weeks and is a positive putter on the Bermuda greens, which makes the decision a no-brainer, folks. Play man.

Honorable mention to Billy Horschel ($ 5,100 DraftKings) this week too. He hasn’t played very well lately, but he’s had some pretty significant success at East Lake over the years, posting both a win and a T-2 since 2013. He’s also a great putter for the players. Bermuda, so if you need a pay break, don’t be afraid to roll it over there in the blink of an eye.

In the photo above: Alex ScHotele.
Photo credit: Stacy Revere / Getty Images.